Karen Richardson Group made their way to San Francisco yesterday for a very inspiring conference that took place at the Marriott Marquis in downtown. Alain Pinel Realtors hosted “Elevate” as the 2019 kickoff event to inform agents of the new and exciting things to come (we are partnering with Facebook) and encourage not only our professional lives, but our personal lives as well. To watch the recap video –>
We had the opportunity to hear the brilliant Marci Rossell (Ph.D., Chief Economist of Leading Real Estate Companies of the World) speak to us concerning the 3 main things effecting the market. I will preface by saying that
the East Bay Real Estate market has been a little wonky over the past few months, and not due to sellers, though inventory is still an issue, but buyers are in this mindset that the market is either going to tank creating huge price drops, or they just seem to be in a holding pattern, a pattern of uncertainty, which is causing them to wait on buying… until something happens. Now as interest rates have been rising higher these buyers are slowly dipping their toe back into the market to find that prices have slowed their climb, but they are still climbing. Prices haven’t dropped (dramatically or at all) and now interest rates are higher and what were they waiting for?
Marci Rossell said the 3 disrupters of the market are, thankfully, all short term. The first is #1 Brexit. Yes, I know this is 3 year old news but the reason it is so relevant today is because the date set for the plan to be on the table is March 29th, 2019. An example Mrs. Rossell used to describe the zeitgeist surrounding this event was Y2k, not because of the panic, but because like Y2k, this anticipated event has a firm date in which it will happen. People are holding their ground, stopping and waiting to see what happens, and like Y2k, once it does, and the date passes revealing that we are all still alive, society will feel more certain about what lies ahead.
#2 on the list was the current US government shutdown. We are in the longest running government shutdown in history, and while it doesn’t look like there’s an end in site, Mrs. Rossell has predicted along with other economists that the shutdown will end in 2.5 weeks or less. She humorously sited that the first point of breaking will be at the airports, with TSA workers. Last night after hearing this prediction I came home to an article on yahoo about how TSA workers are calling in “sick” by the numbers and deterioration of professionalism has already begun. To read the article visit –> https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/unpaid-tsa-agents-no-longer-163400099.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=ma
The final #3 is the Trade War with China. The back and forth between the U.S. and China has been going on for months as the U.S. imposes tariffs on billions of goods and materials & China retaliates with their own tariffs. This is impacting business profits and raising costs for consumers while the U.S. Treasury collects. The new trade agreement signed in October between the United States, Mexico, & Canada (USMCA), replaced the tired NAFTA, and lifted some economic uncertainty. Now the date that looms in the air is March 1st, as the U.S. Trade Representative, Robert Lighthizer, announced the hard deadline for the U.S. and China to reach a trade agreement.
Hopefully, these 3 economic factors contributing to much of the precariousness we’ve been seeing on the home front will have ended or cleared up by April this year. It also looks like interest rates are going to stay steady for the next 12 months and if that remain the case, we plan to have a very active market in 2019!
Sources: Seminar given by Marci Rossell 1/15/19, https://www.cfr.org, https://www.npr.org/, https://www.cbsnews.com